Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end

One of the big lessons from the demographic history of countries is that periods of rapid population growth are temporary. For many countries, the demographic transition has already ended, and as the global fertility rate has now halved, we know that the world as a whole is approaching the end of rapid population growth.

This visualization presents an overview of the global demographic transition, based on estimates from the 2024 data release from the UN Population Division.

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The global population grew only very slowly up to 1700, only 0.04% per year. In the many millennia up to that point, very high child mortality counteracted high fertility. The world was in the first stage of the demographic transition.

Once health improved and mortality declined, things changed quickly — particularly over the course of the 20th century. Over the last 100 years, the global population has more than quadrupled. As we see in the chart, the rise of the global population became steeper and steeper; humanity just lived through the steepest increase of that curve. This also means that your existence is a tiny part of the reason why that curve is so steep.

The seven-fold increase in the world population over the course of two centuries amplified humanity’s impact on the natural environment. How to provide space, food, and resources for a large world population in a way that is sustainable into the distant future is, without question, one of the large, serious challenges for our generation. We should not make the mistake of underestimating the task ahead of us. Yes, I expect new generations to contribute, but for now, it is on us to provide for them. Population growth is still fast: every year, 132 million are born, and 63 million die.¹ The difference is the number of people that we add to the world population in a year: 69 million.

In red, the chart above shows the annual population growth rate (that is, the percentage change in population per year) of the global population. It peaked around half a century ago. Peak population growth was reached in 1963 with an annual growth of 2.3%.

Since then, the increase of the world population has slowed and today grows by 0.9% per year. This slowdown of population growth was not only predictable but also predicted. Just as expected by demographers, the world as a whole is experiencing the closing of a massive demographic transition.

This chart also shows how the United Nations envisions the end of the global demographic transition. As population growth continues to decline, the curve representing the world population is getting less and less steep.

Towards the end of the century, the UN expects the global population to reach its peak at around 10.3 billion people. After this point, the UN demographers project global population growth to become negative, so that the world population starts to fall slowly.

It is hard to know the population dynamics beyond 2100. It will depend on the fertility rate and — as we discuss in our topic page on fertility rates — fertility first falls with development, and then rises with development. The question will be whether it then rises above two children per woman again.

The world is entering the last phase of the demographic transition, and this means we will not repeat the past. The global population has quadrupled over the course of the 20th century, but it will not double over the course of this century.

The world population will reach a size that, compared to humanity’s history, will be extraordinary; if the UN projections are accurate (they have a good track record), the world population will have increased more than tenfold over the span of 250 years.

We are on our way to a new balance. The big global demographic transition that the world entered more than two centuries ago is coming to an end. This new equilibrium is different from the one in the past, when very high mortality kept population growth in check. In the new balance, it will be low fertility that keeps population changes small.

Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, and Veronika Samborska (2023) - “Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end” Published online at OurWorldinData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260304-135001/world-population-growth-past-future.html' [Online Resource] (archived on March 4, 2026).

@article{owid-world-population-growth-past-future,
    author = {Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie and Veronika Samborska},
    title = {Two centuries of rapid global population growth will come to an end},
    journal = {Our World in Data},
    year = {2023},
    note = {https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260304-135001/world-population-growth-past-future.html}
}

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