Data InsightsThe world has made huge progress in reducing extreme poverty; could this be coming to an end?

The world has made huge progress in reducing extreme poverty; could this be coming to an end?

After huge progress on extreme poverty, is its decline coming to an end?

Stacked area chart showing the number of people living in extreme poverty from 2000 to 2040 (extreme poverty defined as living below the international poverty line of $3 per day, adjusted for inflation and price differences). Projections by the World Bank begin around 2024 and are marked with a vertical dashed line.

Key points: total extreme poor falls from about 2.2 billion in 2000 to about 895 million around 2020, then is projected to edge up to about 932 million by 2040. The decline from 2000 to 2020 is driven by large reductions in East Asia & Pacific and South Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa remains relatively high throughout and becomes the largest contributor to the total, causing the later stagnation and slight rise. Region labels on the chart include South Asia, East Asia & Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, and a small band labeled MENA, Afghanistan, Pakistan.

Data source: Lakner et al. (2024), updated using World Bank PIP. CC BY.

At the turn of the millennium, 2.2 billion people in the world lived in extreme poverty. In international statistics, this means they survived on less than $3 per day (in today’s money).

In the two decades that followed, this number more than halved. You can see this decline in the chart.

This huge reduction was driven by rising incomes and poverty alleviation across East and South Asia. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the opposite happened: while the share living in extreme poverty declined, the total number increased.

Looking ahead, based on the latest available projections from researchers at the World Bank, this reduction in global extreme poverty is expected to end. In fact, numbers in 2040 might be higher than they are today.

This is because most of the extremely poor today live in countries with stagnant economies. If these do not see much stronger economic growth, the world will have nearly one billion living in dire poverty for decades to come.

Note that these projections are based on the latest growth projections from the World Bank and the IMF. From 2031 onward, poverty projections are based on the average growth rates observed from 2015 to 2024.

Read my colleague Max Roser’s article, “The end of progress against extreme poverty?”, which goes into this question in much more detail.

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