Differences in GDP per capita across sub-Saharan Africa are large

Bar chart of the remaining CO₂ emissions budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C, 1.7°C and 2°C, where the budget for 1.5°C (150 billion tonnes) equals only 3.5 years of current emissions, compared with 12 years for 1.7°C and 24 years for 2°C. Projected 2026 emissions are 43 billion tonnes, so the 1.5°C budget would be exhausted within 4 years and the 2°C budget by 2051. Data sources: IPCC AR6 WG1; Forster et al. (2026); Global Carbon Project (2026). License: CC BY to Our World in Data.

November 12

How much CO2 can the world emit while limiting global temperature rise?

Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Rosado

In 2015, countries worldwide signed the Paris Agreement, aiming to keep the global temperature rise “well below 2°C” and to limit it to 1.5°C.

To meet these targets, there are limits to the amount of carbon dioxide (CO₂) that can be emitted. These are called carbon budgets. Every year we emit more CO₂, these budgets shrink.

In the chart, you can see estimates for how much CO₂ the world can emit while staying below different levels of warming. This is based on a 50% likelihood of staying below it; if we wanted to guarantee we wouldn’t exceed these temperatures, our budget would be much smaller.

For perspective, we’ve compared each budget with the projected amount of CO₂ that the world is expected to emit in 2026. This tells us how many years we have left if emissions stay at their current levels.

At current emission rates, the 1.5°C budget would run out around 2030. It seems implausible that global emissions will fall quickly enough to avoid this.

The 2°C budget would last until mid-century. By taking action on climate change, we buy ourselves more time and can avoid this level of warming.

This is based on the latest estimates from the Global Carbon Project. See how emissions are changing in your country

Line chart of global fossil CO₂ emissions from 1960 to 2026 where emissions rise from about 9 billion tonnes to a projected 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, a 0.4% decline from 2025. The long-term climb is interrupted only by brief dips, including a sharp one in 2020. Source: Global Carbon Budget (2026), with 2026 a preliminary estimate. License: CC BY to Our World in Data.

November 10

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are set to fall in 2026

Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Rosado

Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall by around 0.4% in 2026. This is based on the latest preliminary estimates from the Global Carbon Project, published today.

This is a small reduction within an overall upward trend. Emissions have grown more slowly over the past decade than in previous decades, but they have not yet peaked or begun a consistent decline.

This fall mostly came from a reduction in oil consumption and a small decline in gas. Coal use increased slightly.

Among the major emitters, emissions are projected to fall in China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan. But they’re expected to increase by around 4% in India.

Why did emissions fall? The authors cite three key factors.

The deployment of clean energy (particularly solar and wind) displaced some fossil fuel use that would have otherwise been required to meet growing energy demand. Electric vehicles also reduced oil demand. Finally, the war in Iran and its impact on oil prices led to reduced demand, which has inadvertently reduced emissions.

Emissions from land-use change are more uncertain but are projected to increase this year due to peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia.

Explore new estimates for all countries for 2025, measured in total, per capita, and historical terms

Stacked area chart of global coal consumption, split between China and the rest of the world, from 1965 to 2025, where China now burns more coal than the rest of the world combined. Global use rose from about 16,000 TWh to over 45,000 TWh, and nearly all of that growth came from China after 2000, while the rest of the world stayed roughly flat at around 15,000 to 22,000 TWh. Source: Energy Institute, Statistical Review of World Energy (2026). License: CC BY to Our World in Data.

November 7

Almost all the growth in global coal use since the late 1980s has come from China

Max Roser

Outside China, the world’s use of coal has barely changed since the late 1980s. It was just over 20,000 terawatt-hours back then, and almost four decades later, it is still the same.

But the change has been very different in China. The country has increased the use of coal enormously, and today, China is burning more coal than the rest of the world combined.

The future of global coal use, and the emissions that come with it, depends heavily on what happens in China.

How much deadlier and dirtier is coal than the alternatives? Find out in our article on the safest and cleanest sources of energy

Line chart of reported annual cancer death rates per 100,000 people in Chile where crude rates increase from 102 to 151 between 1980 to 2022 while age-adjusted rates fall from 146 to 98, illustrating the effect of population aging. The chart highlights divergent trends: rising crude deaths but falling age-adjusted deaths. Data source: WHO Mortality Database (2025). License: CC BY.

November 5

Population aging is pushing up Chile’s crude cancer death rate, even as age-adjusted rates are falling

Esteban Ortiz-Ospina

In Chile, the annual number of cancer deaths as a share of the total population has been rising for decades. From this, it would be easy to assume that cancer is getting worse. But the chances of dying from cancer at most ages are lower than they used to be. The missing piece is that the country’s population is changing quickly, and older people now make up a much larger share.

That’s what the chart shows. The crude cancer death rate, in red, counts registered cancer deaths per 100,000 people of all ages. This metric has been going up, reflecting the fact that cancer risks increase steeply with age, and the population has grown much older.

The blue line, by contrast, shows the age-adjusted rate. This metric removes the effect of aging by holding the age structure constant.

This line has been falling for decades, which means that Chileans at almost every age are now less likely to die from cancer than people of the same age were in the past.

The pattern we see in Chile is happening in many other countries, too, and is visible in the global estimates.

Explore this same comparison country by country in our interactive chart

Line chart of the share of Poland's electricity generated from coal and from solar and wind, 1985 to 2025, where coal's share fell from 71% in 2021 to 50% in 2025 while solar and wind more than doubled from 11% to 25%. Coal has dominated for decades, at over 95% in the 1980s and 1990s, and solar and wind were near zero until about 2010. Data source: Ember (2026); Energy Institute (2026). License: CC BY to Our World in Data.

November 3

Solar and wind power have grown quickly in Poland, but coal still dominates

Hannah Ritchie and Pablo Arriagada

The share of electricity produced by solar and wind in Poland more than doubled in just four years. In 2021, these renewable sources produced just 11% of its power; by 2025, this had risen to 25%.

You can see this growth in the chart, based on electricity data from Ember.

Solar and wind output, combined, grew very little in 2025, due to weak wind conditions. Solar output continued to grow, but it was barely enough to offset the decline in wind power.

Poland still has one of the most coal-intensive electricity mixes in Europe, with coal producing 50% of its power. The country has committed to moving away from it in the next few decades; growth in solar and wind generation will play a key role in this.

Explore energy sources across the world in our charts

Stacked bar chart of projected 2025 population age shares (under 15, 15 to 64 years old, older than 65) where it contrasts very young and very old populations — the Central African Republic is shown with 49% under 15 and 2% older than 65, the global average is 25% under 15 and 10% older than 65, and Japan is shown with 11% under 15 and 30% older than 65. Source: UN, World Population Prospects (2024). License: CC BY to Our World in Data.

October 31

One in ten people in the world is over 65 — how does this compare in the youngest and oldest countries?

Hannah Ritchie

One in four people in the world is younger than 15. Just one in ten is 65 or older.

But there are huge differences in this distribution across countries. In the chart, I’ve shown these global figures alongside the country with the largest share of children, the Central African Republic, and the one with the largest share of older people, Japan.

In the Central African Republic, half of the population is under 15. Being over 65 is pretty rare: just 2% of the population.

Japan is the opposite. Being a child or adolescent puts you in the minority. Almost one-third of the population is 65 and older, and that share is growing quickly.

These differences in age distribution matter a lot for a country’s infrastructure, socioeconomic conditions, and public spending — from pensions and healthcare to childcare and education.

See how the age distribution of your own country compares to others across the world

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