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Data

Respiratory death rate from seasonal influenza, age 65+

About this data

Source
Paget et al. (2019) – processed by Our World in Data
Last updated
September 26, 2022
Date range
2011–2011

Related research and writing

How many people die from the flu?

Saloni Dattani and Fiona Spooner

Sources and processing

This data is based on the following sources

Paget et al. – Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project

This study was part of the Global Pandemic Mortality Project II (GLaMOR) and was conducted by the Netherlands Institute for Health Service Research, in collaboration with the US National Institutes of Health and Centers for Disease Control, funded by the World Health Organization.

The authors used a two stage approach to estimate annual mortality from seasonal influenza between 2002 and 2011 (excluding the Swine flu pandemic season). In the first step, the authors used weekly or monthly mortality records and influenza surveillance data to estimate age-specific excess respiratory mortality caused by seasonal influenza for 31 countries. In the second step, they used country-specific indicators to extrapolate these estimates to remaining countries. They applied sensitivity analyses and estimated reliability coefficients to understand how sensitive these estimates were to different methodological decisions.

These estimates focus on respiratory-associated influenza mortality. This means they aim to include respiratory deaths where other complications may have been listed as the primary cause of death, but those deaths were actually caused by influenza. However, it would exclude deaths where patients did not have respiratory disease, even if their deaths were caused by influenza (such as through only cardiovascular complications).

The global number of people who die from other complications of the flu is unclear. Paget et al. (the authors of the GLaMOR project) state in their paper that their estimate "does not cover cardiovascular deaths, something that could at least double the estimate of influenza-associated deaths." In recent meta-analyses, Behrouzi et al. found that influenza vaccination reduces the chances of major cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) by around 34%, in clinical trials of the elderly. This suggests the death toll from other complications could be large. However, global estimates have not been made of these types of deaths from flu.

See: Paget, J., Danielle Iuliano, A., Taylor, R. J., Simonsen, L., Viboud, C., & Spreeuwenberg, P. (2022). Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project. Vaccine, 40(9), 1361–1369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.080 Behrouzi, B., Bhatt, D. L., Cannon, C. P., Vardeny, O., Lee, D. S., Solomon, S. D., & Udell, J. A. (2022). Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 5(4), e228873. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873

Retrieved on
September 26, 2022
Retrieved from
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Citation
This is the citation of the original data obtained from the source, prior to any processing or adaptation by Our World in Data. To cite data downloaded from this page, please use the suggested citation given in Reuse This Work below.
Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. PMID: 31673337; PMCID: PMC6815659.

This study was part of the Global Pandemic Mortality Project II (GLaMOR) and was conducted by the Netherlands Institute for Health Service Research, in collaboration with the US National Institutes of Health and Centers for Disease Control, funded by the World Health Organization.

The authors used a two stage approach to estimate annual mortality from seasonal influenza between 2002 and 2011 (excluding the Swine flu pandemic season). In the first step, the authors used weekly or monthly mortality records and influenza surveillance data to estimate age-specific excess respiratory mortality caused by seasonal influenza for 31 countries. In the second step, they used country-specific indicators to extrapolate these estimates to remaining countries. They applied sensitivity analyses and estimated reliability coefficients to understand how sensitive these estimates were to different methodological decisions.

These estimates focus on respiratory-associated influenza mortality. This means they aim to include respiratory deaths where other complications may have been listed as the primary cause of death, but those deaths were actually caused by influenza. However, it would exclude deaths where patients did not have respiratory disease, even if their deaths were caused by influenza (such as through only cardiovascular complications).

The global number of people who die from other complications of the flu is unclear. Paget et al. (the authors of the GLaMOR project) state in their paper that their estimate "does not cover cardiovascular deaths, something that could at least double the estimate of influenza-associated deaths." In recent meta-analyses, Behrouzi et al. found that influenza vaccination reduces the chances of major cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) by around 34%, in clinical trials of the elderly. This suggests the death toll from other complications could be large. However, global estimates have not been made of these types of deaths from flu.

See: Paget, J., Danielle Iuliano, A., Taylor, R. J., Simonsen, L., Viboud, C., & Spreeuwenberg, P. (2022). Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project. Vaccine, 40(9), 1361–1369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.080 Behrouzi, B., Bhatt, D. L., Cannon, C. P., Vardeny, O., Lee, D. S., Solomon, S. D., & Udell, J. A. (2022). Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 5(4), e228873. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873

Retrieved on
September 26, 2022
Retrieved from
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6815659/
Citation
This is the citation of the original data obtained from the source, prior to any processing or adaptation by Our World in Data. To cite data downloaded from this page, please use the suggested citation given in Reuse This Work below.
Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. PMID: 31673337; PMCID: PMC6815659.

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Citations

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To cite this page overall, including any descriptions, FAQs or explanations of the data authored by Our World in Data, please use the following citation:

“Data Page: Respiratory death rate from seasonal influenza, age 65+”. Our World in Data (2026). Data adapted from Paget et al.. Retrieved from https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260512-085513/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.html [online resource] (archived on May 12, 2026).

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In-line citationIf you have limited space (e.g. in data visualizations), you can use this abbreviated in-line citation:

Paget et al. (2019) – processed by Our World in Data

Full citation

Paget et al. (2019) – processed by Our World in Data. “Respiratory death rate from seasonal influenza, age 65+” [dataset]. Paget et al., “Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project” [original data]. Retrieved May 17, 2026 from https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260512-085513/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.html (archived on May 12, 2026).

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Data URL (CSV format)
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.csv?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false
Metadata URL (JSON format)
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.metadata.json?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false

Code examples

Examples of how to load this data into different data analysis tools.

Excel / Google Sheets
=IMPORTDATA("https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.csv?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false")
Python with Pandas
import pandas as pd
import requests

# Fetch the data.
df = pd.read_csv("https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.csv?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false", storage_options = {'User-Agent': 'Our World In Data data fetch/1.0'})

# Fetch the metadata
metadata = requests.get("https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.metadata.json?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false").json()
R
library(jsonlite)

# Fetch the data
df <- read.csv("https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.csv?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false")

# Fetch the metadata
metadata <- fromJSON("https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.metadata.json?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false")
Stata
import delimited "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65.csv?v=1&csvType=full&useColumnShortNames=false", encoding("utf-8") clear