Emerge Conference Oxford – 2016
Our World in Data
746 Million still live in extreme poverty.The world population was 7.18 billion in 2013.
Today's rich countries became rich very recently.
(1,000 lumen hours; ±80 watt light bulb for 1 hour )
Global inequality. This is the distribution in 1988. A clearly devided world.
Changing global inequality.
Declining extreme poverty
But people do not know that extreme poverty is declining.
"In 1800, 43% of the world's population died as children. By 1950 it was down to 20%. By 2013 it was down to 3.4%. This is a big win!"
Life expectancy in all world regions doubled.
But you would be wrong if you think it was child mortality only – life expectancy at all age levels increased.
Maternal mortality declined hugely.
A key innovation in health were vaccines. With vaccines it was possible to eradicate one of the worst diseases in history: Smallpox.
We should not forget how important vaccines were, also for you here in the US.
In many parts of the world malaria has been eradicated (in the US in 1951).
In many parts of the world malaria has been eradicated (in the US in 1951) and around the world, malaria mortality figures are falling.
Two diseases in which we make rapid progress and are getting close to eradicating the disease are polio and guinea worm disease. Here we see the latest data on guinea worm disease.
The global average literacy rate in 1870 was 21%.
Years of schooling in 1870.In 1870 the literacy rate of the world was 21%.
Gender ratios for mean years of schooling, 1870 to 2010.
Fewer illiterate people
The link between education and health
Countries with higher educational attainment in the past are more likely to have democratic political regimes today
Archaeological studies show that societies in the past were very violent. Often more than 10% of deaths were the result of one person killing another.
In this chart I have included all the available archaeological evidence that I could find. You can find the (long) list of data sources by clicking on the chart.
Ethnographic evidence confirms that violence is very common in nonstate societies and drastically higher than in modern state societies.
This chart shows the ethnographic evidence. You can find the (long) list of data sources by clicking on the chart.
The historical record of homicide rates in Europe shows that modern levels of violence were only arrived at after a long decline.
Here we compare rates of violence - number of people killed per year, rather than share of deaths that were violent.
Once again, ethnographic studies show that violence in nonstate societies was much higher than in modern state societies.
This is a long-term view of wars and genocides.
The past was not peaceful.
As the Theory of Democratic Peace predicts, there has been a corresponding decline of war deaths.
We can see how the world will change when we compare the education of the old generation with the generation of the young generation.
The younger generation is much better educated.
Projection of the Total World Population by Level of Education, 2015 – 2100
According to IIASA the world population will peak in 2070. The number of children will decline; only population momentum + longer lives increase the world population.
3.2 billion are online. 44% of the world population.
From this perspective it is surprising that few are optimistic
It is not only journalism – but also journalism – that is to blame.